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'Robin Hood' Obama

Tired short-term statements are wrong.

From Richardsons weekly radio address, he said what energy plan Obama has.  Link is http://www.townhall.com/News/NewsArticle2.aspx?UrlTitle=richardson_touts_obamas_energy,_economic_policies&c=politics-elections&dt=06/28/2008&submitted=true&comments=true&sort=desc#comments

Richardson admits we have responsible drilling, but implies it is irresponsible drilling, by limiting how many leases.  97% of offshore is not leased.  94% of government land is not leased.

Richardson says oil companies do not explore nor drill with what they have.  Exploring means to look at all the possibilities.

He says drilling will do nothing, at least for the short-term.  Then, we should start right now.  He says it will not supply that much.  Then, we should start right now to find out.

Richardson's short-term fix is to rob from the rich.  This will work in about a year when the taxes are collected again, then for about five years when the oil compaines and other targeted corporations have move out of our country.

Another short-sighted agrument is to take our emergency supplies of oil by stop supplying our oil reserves.

Stimulus checks are short-term fix, too.  When the people look for another fix and the national bank is drained, what will Obama do.

So yes, Obama and democrats have short-term fixes and short-term solutions.

Waiting for alternative energy is a big risk.  We have waited for them for 30 years.  Do you really believe that in five years the cost will come down for everyone and we will have the infra-structure to re-fuel? 

Are we on the Star Ship Lollipop?

 

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Sing a Song

Liberals feel and have artistic arguments.  Conservatives think and have logical arguments.
 
Liberal rhythmic arguments:
-Can't drill yourself out of a problem.
-To 68 million acre leases, Use it or loose it
-3rd Bush Term
-Bush lied, people died
-Blood for oil
-we treat our poor worst than 3rd world nations
-McCain will take away birth control
-McCain will put in judges to overturn Rove vs. Wade
-Bush Tax cuts for the rich
-Invalid war
-Fairness Doctrine
-Big Oil
-9/11 inside job
-Yes, we can
 
They have a nice rythm.  Don't they.  Unfortunately, it keeps many from going any further to understand there is more to the story.  They are usually more complex or just plain wrong.
 
I've watch many debates including liberals.  Once liberals are confronted with facts, they either change the subject or go back to their remembered rhythmic phrase.  I often hear them repeat it over and over again, like a small child with sing-song verse.
 
As this article 'Why Liberals Lie About What They Believe', liberals also have the arguments that make them feel good.
It's all about the feelings.
 
To convince liberals, the conservatives have to wrap their arguments into how will it make liberals feel good about themselves and does it have a catchy sound.
 
I have an initial song.  We look it up, not make it up.  They might take offense, but then again it has a catchy sound.
 
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Send the Oil Companies to bed without any dinner

The oil companies have leased 91.5 million acres and only 23.7 million acres are producing.  Send them to bed and not give them any more until they get make all leased arces productive.
 
Finding oil is like finding a needle in the haystack.  The oil companies have explored current leases with advanced technology and have found they contain little or no oil.  They want to switch these to better possibilities.  If the new sites do not have any oil, they can go back to the acres with little oil and more expensive to drill.  Yet, the Democrats would have you believe they are holding onto the leases to increase the price. 
 
The Democrats, this Wednesday night, had a 1994-2007 chart which they say proves more drilling does not lead to lower prices.  The gas prices and production moved up slowly 1994-2003.  Then in 2004, the efficiency of the oil companies increased, like 30%.  And at the time though, prices increased even more, like 70%.
 
Could this be the only answer?  Does consumption for Hummers, oversized SUVs, double cab pick-ups have anything to do with this?  In the early 1990s, we still felt the need to conserve.  Many foreign cars had as good mpg, as they tout today.  Since that time and up to recently, it was impossible to find a car with good mpg.  Also, during that time, I have seen spawling developments of 6,000 square feet homes sided by side for miles and in many areas.  Energy efficiency can improve energy consumption, not eliminate it.  Chris Dodd has a couple of those homes.
 
The oil companies became more efficient, but not enough for our appetite. 
 
Rep. Steve King discussed all the options of energy.  Our president had a speech on drilling and need for alternative energy.  Democrat presentation Wednesday night was to say the Republicans and the president want to only drill.  In the face of opposing facts, continue with the 30-second message.
 
The pipeline in Alaska was warned that the caribo would be affected.  It has grown from 75,000 to 377,000.  ANWR is north of the artic circle, which means no trees grow.  Drilling can keep ANWR prestine because of the improved drilling methods and the land is mushy ice that melts and re-freeze without any mark on it.
 
This pipline can be used with the ANWR drilling for a million barrels.  The Democrats say this will save us 1.8 cents a gallon.  But, they also said one million barrels from OPEC would save 62 cents.  The truth is we do not know the full facts.  Allow the oil companies a chance to do what they do best and congress to back off what they do lousy.
 
The Democrats say the president has done nothing to solve our energy problem.  They leave out our president has proposed plans and the congress has rejected all of them.  
 
The Democrats say they have had energy plans.  The price fixing was voted down.  This did not work in the 1980s, but this makes no difference because they can say the Republicans block them.  They have had 18 price gouging investigations, which turned up no price fixing.  They talk as if this did not happen.  They want more investigations because it has to be there.
 
Democrats say they have given over the years more leases for drilling.  Why not give them all the leases to find unexplored oil.  This is our congress's elite, condescending ways.  Now, mommy or your big government knows best.
 
The sad part of this is it may be a little too late.  The oil companies have sold much of the drilling equipment to foreign countries and the remaning equipment is aging.
 
Alternative energy is not ready for prime time.  Honda has 50 hydrogen cars that they are leasing in Californa.  How much does it cost to build one of these proto-types?  One million dollars each.  Flex-Fuel and Solar are fuel efficient, but expensive to buy to savings return, like 100 to one.  One futristist says it will be five years before solar energy is efficient enough for general use.
 
You say drilling will take years.  But, the stock market is forward projecting.  Once we start to do something, the price will improve.  Some day we can say we did it and did not put it off due to long-term planning.
 
So, Democrats saying, blaming, demanding does not make it happen.  Capitalism makes it happen.  Allow every option, every corporation, every public land and waters, and every interested person to get involved to solve our energy problem.
 
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Try to Catch a Lie

Make the Republicans look dishonest by saying they are lying about China drilling off the coast of Florida.  Make this the reason to avoid comprise with Republicans.
 
This link on Daily Kos does exactly that.
 
If you notice, it cites sources that admit it is true.  The article finds it unnecessary to use logic or sources.  Just say it and it is true.
 
Yet, the next article explained that Cuba is drilling 50 miles offshore of Florida.  http://www.khaleejtimes.com/darticlen.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2008/June/theworld_June689.xml&section=theworld&col=
 
Once this drilling issue is brought up, complain that we are not using biofuels.  Also, set up suspicion on our esclated rise of demand -- maybe Republicans are behind this.
 
Homework to Think about. 
What is more important than China or Cuba having the ability to drill off our shores? 
Answer: It is that they can and we can not.
Tags: drilling  
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"All of Above" Oil Solution

In a TV interview, Sen. Bernie Sanders agreed with Neal Cavuto of FoxNews that we could include drilling to solve our oil problems.
 
In the Energy Renewable Committee meeting, Bernie said he was on conversative TV where they want to drill our way out of this problem.  At the time, I thought he agreed because he could not think of any good reason to keep us from our resources.
 
Neal was so proud that he had brokered a deal.  The Republicans would disallow oil company incentives and Democrats would allow drilling.  Neal has said many times "all of above" as a solution to our oil problem, not just drilling.
 
Bernie asked T. Boone Pickens isn't it true that we can not drill out of this problem.  Bonne explained that our oil wells are very mature, meaning our oil fields will have less to extract.  This is determined by the gallon comparison between water and oil.  More water to oil means less oil is available.  He named Saudis and Veneznuela, who had 4:1 and 19:1 ratio.  We have 100 gallons of water to every gallon of oil.  He also said the estimate of 16 millions of barrels in ANWR is probably not correct.  It is probably lower.
 
Although Pickens further said, "What the Democrats need to do is say at $30 a barrel, it did not make sense to drill in ANWR, but at $130 it now make sense."
 
Bernie thinks he is protecting us or protecting our country.  I think he is protecting his biases.
 
I want 'all of the above', too.  On drilling, I want one more item.  I want to know the results of weekly test of water to oil ratio.  Keep us aware of our gas tank level.  This way we keep our focus on all other oil solutions.
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Old and New School News Blend

On C-Span, a panel of Mark from Newsweek, Katherine from Townhall, Jim from Politico, Michael (not sure about name) from Clinton campaign, Kevin from Romney campaign, and hosted by Mary from NPR discussed old school and new school news.
 
Mark explained institutional news should continue reporting the serious news and the websites should do the Obama girl type news because there is a market for this.  This hung in the air for a while.  I interpreted this statement as we, the institutional news, are the arbiter of the news and you guys play all you want.  He further said, which seems the underlining issue, is how can they pay reporters while most on the websites are doing this for free.  He said payment would guarantee more thorough investigations.
 
I was beginning to believe Mary was only going to allow talk about what she considers the serious news by the institutions.  Out of courtesy she asked questions of the rest of the panel.
 
Michael and Kevin talked about how to use and take advantage of both.  Katherine and Jim said that we definitely want to be entertained.  Further Katherine said, even nightly news does 20 minutes of entertainment and five minutes of opinion.  And, reporters may filter out what she might want more details about.  This is what is so good about blogging.  They can go into as much detail as the author knows about it.  She said she may want to read this detail and discuss it with her friends.  TV has only the 30-second to 3-minute sound byte.
 
I thought they did excellent.  Wish I was a journalist so I could have taken better notes.  Even the host Mary backed down by saying it is widely believed that NPR is subsidized by the government.  The government provides only a small percentage of their funding.  Kind of touchy don't you think.  I always wondered if they had any guilt about taking our money and spilling out the left-wing mantra.
 
The question and answer part had two interesting discussions.
 
A political teacher complain that only two websites are an aggregate of the news.  They are 'The Drudge Report' and 'Real Clear Politics' and he says they are skewed right.  Katherine answered this exactlly.  Before these two websites, the aggregate of the news was ABC and CBS that is skewed left.  They corrected that 'Real Clear Politics' is neo-con, while Drudge is mostly interested in breaking stories.  This triggered talks about how these breaking stories make many to release a story before it is fully vetted.  Valid point, but doesn't competition make us sharper.  And, sharper means nothing if it falls apart or does not get the job done.
 
Another questioner said he was a speechwriter for Reagan.  They knew that the press conferences had media biased left.  They tried to get around that by building 30-second sound bites, which were less likely to be manipulated.  And, this sound bite could peak the population interest.
 
Later, I realized I have met this phenomenon three times before.
 
First, secretary banks took much space of office buildings.  No executive could type.  In high school, I did not want to take typing course because I thought that meant I was locked into becoming a secretary.  Eventually, most every one types their own words.  Today, the secretaries are called assistances and have a greater function.
 
Second, another personal phenomenon was information processing.  When I first started programming, I thought I might program myself out of a job.  After all, programs did make certain jobs obsolete.  Eventually, the communities using our services began to use spreadsheets.  Many products were developed that were user friendly.  Some were clumsy, if you wanted to do more than what it was designed to do.  While, others worked well.  Yet, programming languages began to grow with more complexity and richer functionality.  Both work, just use the tool for the job.
 
Third, this morning I was my watching CNBC talking panel with Michael McCallister, president of Huma.  He said that Health Care is more complex than everyone realizes.  In fact, it does not work as well when we try to make it better.  This reminded me of when I worked in the early 70s for an insurance company, which was awarded the processing of medicare for the state.  So much talk was made that costs would go down because the centralize processing of the information.  Never heard later that their claims were true.  What I did know the costs kept expanding to develop programs for more complexity.  On FoxNews, a visitor kept saying that universal health care will save us money on administration costs.  I sent them an email about my experience and told them that most doctors have computers, computer services, and generic programs to track their accounting and billing. 
 
To me, the answer is allow it all and deny none from discussion.  Do not allow people to force the solution into a box.  Like, Obama and congress say about oil -- "We can not drill ourselves out of the oil problem."  What doesn't work will adapt.  What does work will attract more people to join and this is good.
 
My thought is learn from history and keep your opinions open.
 
One more thought.  On Fox News financial discussion, the panel says why should we do this when it did not work in the 80s.  The Obama supporter, a visitor to the panel said "well, I was only nine years old then".  This is what scares me.  They did not experience it or observe it, therefore it never existed.
 
Even if it did not work in the past, it may work today.  Just explain how it would work today.  Do not just wrap it in our time for change.
 
Old school and new school will blend into something better.  In similar events, history has proven this.
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Warren Buffet pays more than his Secretary Myth

Warren Buffett proudly announces on '60 Minutes' that he pays a lower tax rate than his secretary.
 
Mis-leading and this is the breakdown.
 
Buffett earned in 2007 46 million in income and one billion in dividends.
 
The income taxes is 46 million at 35% income tax rate for 16.1 million taxes.
 
The dividend tax is 1 billion at 15% dividend tax rate for 150 million taxes.
 
This is a total tax of 166.1 million, which has a combined 15.9% tax rate.
 
Buffett secretary makes 60k and is in the 25% bracket, which calculates for $8,218 and a tax rate 14%.
 
If we raised dividend taxes, it would affect all tax bracket persons who have a retirement fund.  Many people earning far less than Buffett have an investment account.  Our corporations set aside their assets into investing.  The Buffett statement is like the baby crying in the middle of a war-torn city at the start of WWII.
 
Warren Buffett might sub-consicously want to hamper our economy for us regular people.  He is in favor of rising the estate tax.  Many of the companies he has purchased were from distressed sales of families who could not continue their family business because of the 50% taxes.  These companies were efficient and their family members learned from childhood how to run their business that ended up adding wealth to the billionaire.
 
Obama and congress keeps repeating Buffett's statement.
 
Warren Buffett's statement is like a deep mark on a new fine furniture.  No matter what we do, it stays in our collective psyche.
Tags: Buffett  
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Bush Tax Cuts for the Rich Myth

With all this talk about Bush Tax Cuts for the rich, I decided to calculate taxes to compare year 2000 taxes to year 2007 taxes.  My calculations are based on married filed jointly.
 
Salary Bracket % Savings
$20,000 for 5%
$40,000 for 2%
$60,000-$80,000 for 4.8%
$100,000-$140,000 for 4.5%
$160,000 for 4.3%
$180,000 for 4.7%
$200,000 for 4.9%
$220,000 for 4.7%
$240,000 for 4.6%
$260,000 for 4.5%
$280,000-$300,000 for 4.4%
$320,000-$340,000 for 4.5%
$360,000-$1m for 4.7%
$2m - $50m for 4.6%
 
Seems even handed to me. 


In 2000, the lowest bracket of the married poor was 
$0-$43,850 for a tax rate of 15%.
 
This was broken into two brackets of
$0-$15,650 for a tax rate of 10%
$15,650-$63,700 for a tax rate of 15%
 
The lower $0-$15,650 of this bracket had a generous drop, while the upper of this bracket had the tax rate remain the same, but other calculation still made a tax rate savings of 2%.
 
Bush Tax cuts made changes included:
-lower tax rates for each bracket,
-raised the bracket range,
-and change the flat amount to add. 
 
Tax rate decreases were favorable to all brackets, except one, mentioned above, and it remain the same.  All tax brackets had a raise in upper limit.  This meant some people were able to go to a lower tax bracket and thus even lower tax rate.  The calcuations are a percent of its tax bracket plus a flat amount to represent the lower brackets.  This amount was slightly more, so slightly negative.
 
Overall, as you see above, a decrease rate evenly through the salary brackets.
 
The full calcuations with selected salaries have these actual tax rates.
$20,000 for 10%
$40,000 for 13%
$60,000 for 14%
$80,000 for 16%
$100,000 for 18% 
$120,000 for 19%
$140,000 for 20%
$160,000 for 21%
$180,000 for 22%
$200,000 for 23%
$220,000-$240,000 for 24%
$260,000-$280,000 for 25%
$300,000 for 26%
$320,000-$360,000 for 27%
$380,000-$420,000 for 28%
$440,000-$500,000 for 29%
$1m for 32%
$2m for 34%
$5m-above for 35% 
 
It is the definition of progressive tax.  The tax rates go up when the salary brackets go up.
 
says Obama plan can not be characterize as an increase. 
 
Those savings percents above turn into tax expenses when the Bush Tax Cuts expire.
 
Examples of extra taxes when Bush Tax Cut expire are:
$20,000 for $1,000
$40,000 for $783
$60,000 for $2,883
$80,000 for $3,853
$100,000 for $4,453
$120,000 for $5,474
$140,000 for $6,329
$160,000 for $8,457
$180,000 for $9,849
$200,000 for $10,449
$500,000 for $23,462
$1m for $46,462 (tax is $322,206)
$5m for $2,300,462 (tax is $17,472,206)
 
They can say Obama's is not a tax increase.  But, allowing the Bush Tax Cuts to expire before he puts his tax plan to work is enough.
 
 
 
 
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Obama Funding Falls Short, needs more than War and Taxes

I have believed Obama can not cover his give away programs for approximately one trillion each year.

I decided to get with the math.

We collected in 2007 2.57 trillion, which is more collected than any time in history.

This 2.57 trillion breaks down as:
45.3% individual income taxes ($1.2 trillion)
33.9% social insurance and retirement receipts ($870 billion)
14.4% corporate income taxes ($370 billion)
3.9% other taxes ($26 billion estate & gift taxes, $26 custom duties, $48 misc.)
2.5% excise tax ($74 billion)

Social insurance and retirement receipts we can not touch.  This leaves us 1.7 trillion to use.

Most of the tax collected is needed for current fundings.  I will use 15% of this 1.7 trillion for Obama, giving him 26 billion.

We have 26 billion of the one trillion that Obama needs.
 
The war in the last five years has cost 530 billion, for 106 billion per year.  Because cost usually go up, I'm saying 130 billion.  Not all the military will disappear.  We should have some defense.  So, it could reduce to 50 billion.  But, if the al-qaeda believes, as Saddam did after the Gulf war, that they defeated America, they may once again attack our ships and/or posts around the world or here at home.  So, it could increase to an astronomical expense in money and lives.  Ignoring the worst case, use the most optimistic outcome for 56 billion to pick up.

We have 82 billion of the needed one trillion.

Now, we need to 'take' from the rich and the small business.

The individual taxpayers pay 1.2 trillion.  The top 1% pay 39% of this collected tax for 468 billion.  If you increase their percent from 35% to 40%, you collect an additional 67 billion.
 
We now have 149 billion of the needed one trillion.
 
Obama may decide to increase the tax rate to 50%.  This is for an additional 135 billion.

We now have 284 billion of the needed one trillion.

Next, we go after the corporations, which are the second highest taxed in the world.  Corporations pay $370 billion.  The tax rate varies from oil companies for 41% to GE for 17%.  I will use 35% as the average.  If Obama increases this to 50%, we have an additional 159 billion.

We now have 443 billion of the needed one trillion.

Obama could increase tax rate even more on the top 1% individuals or the corporations.  The top 1% would stop investing into our country and that could cost future inventions, corporations, etc.  The corporations would downsize or move to another country.  So, an increase would result in no more tax collected.  Higher tax percent on a shrinking earning pie makes the tax collected remain the same or smaller.

This probably why Obama plans a fine if a corporation leaves our country.  This is a one-time collection, little help to an every year expense.

Now, we have to go down the income tax bracket to pick up more taxes.

Lets go to the top 25% of taxpayers, who pay 86% of the taxes collected.  Those making $160,850 to $349,700 have a tax rate of 35%.  Those making $77,100 to $160,850 have a tax rate of 33%.  This is the middle class and upper middle class.  Obama said he was going to decrease their taxes for the middle class.  So, this place is a wash.

Capital Gains and Dividend tax collected for 2002-3 is 63.8 billion.  You could double it from 15% to 30%, but will not receive double the tax collected.  People would invest less once their profit potential decreases.  Lets say a generous 50 billion to Obama.

We now have 493 billion of the needed one trillion.

Now, what about rising the FICA tax limit of $62,700 for a tax rate of 7.65%.  This tax is for social security.  It has a limit because social security has limited payout.  Using money for retirement to spend on current insurance needs does not seem right.  The corporations and small businesses have to match the employee FICA for total collected is 870 billion.  Lifting this limit, I would guess another 300 billion.

We now have 793 billion of the needed one trillion and no other place to take citizen property.

What do we have as a result.  This is health insurance, which has limits, dis-allowances, and preconditions.  Because the companies are the backbone of our country, punish them means a weaker economy.  A weaker economy means less jobs and limited pay.  Therefore, more people would need the welfare aid to pay their portion of their insurance payment.
 
One other caveat.  Insurance definition is the share of the risk.  The universe population has more risky less healthy persons than those who buy their insurance.  This additional risk means the cost will increase. 
 
Next, the government will assume the rich are hiding assets and corporations are gouging.  So, they will take all the profits.  I'm thinking my government has met the tipping point to socialism.
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Democrats say Bush breaks their promises

On Jan. 4, 2007 when the Democrats took office, they made big promises.  One was to solve the high gas prices, even to cut it in half.

The Republicans said they have not seen any action from the Democrats about energy.  The Republican for months have outlined out how much clean energy we have here in our country.  The democrats reponded they have setup congressional investigations and set mpg standards.  This is not a plan.  A plan is for action, not to blame and make demands.

Eighteen investigations into oil companies could find no price gouging. 

At the time, gas price was $2.33.  Today at $4.00, it is nearly doubled.

Yet, Pelosi has on her website that the gasoline has doubled since Bush took office.

While watching the House of Representatives, a democrat took the podium.  First before proceeding on something unrelated, she said I have to tell you what the price was when Bush took office.  She said she wanted to make sure it was ON THE RECORD.

Can I do that?  Make promises without a plan and when it does not work blame Bush?
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